Has Apple Really Done It Again?

Ignore for just a moment that I am typing this post on my MacBook Pro, have nursed an old Powerbook back to health this year, use an iPod Touch regularly, and am eyeing the iPhone 4...

In reading Forrester Research analyst, Sarah Rotman Epps' post from earlier this summer, Apple iPad Sales: Why Tablets Are Even Bigger Than We Thought I couldn't help but think where is the healthy skepticism?

The crux of Ms. Epps' commentary is that she blundered her original forecast for consumer iPad sales by grossly underestimating just how quickly the technology would take hold. Further, she makes a few observations that lead her to the conclusion that iPads sales are going to continue to grow at a rate so unprecedented that the technology will effectively leave the traditional S-curve in the dust for "adoption spiking upfront."

A few of the more interesting things she noted about consumer adoption led me to a different conclusion:

• In June, 1.3% of US online consumers reported owning an Apple iPad
• An additional 3.8% say they intend to buy an iPad
• The average iPad purchaser is 20% more likely to use facebook and 40% more likely to use Twitter, and has more friends and followers than the average US online consumer

These data points gave me the following alternative ideas:

• The consumer base is composed solely of category influencers in the innovators and early adopters segments
• Who have adopted the device quickly without a comparable competitor to stack up against it in all benefits/needs categories met by the iPad
• Taking a look at a cross-section of data so early after launch is simply misleading in considering what the overall technology diffusion trend will be over time
• After the wave of innovators and early adopters, with the means to purchase the iPad for its premium price tag, are exhausted consumer adoption will inevitably slow
• Remaining consumer targets will aim to rationalize what they have and not overpay for bundled, redundant offerings, but rather pay for the one or two items not yet satisfied by their laptop, music player, etc.

At any rate it will be interesting to see how much steam the iPad will have as different consumer segments with different needs than its current buyers begin to consider it.