The double edge sword
In the 1980’s, Apple rose on a wave of popularity, bringing P.C’s to the masses. Innovation, simplicity of design and usability propelled Apple to the forefront of the tech industry. By the time Apple filed for their IPO, they had created more millionaires than any other company.
However, the walled garden that Apple had created prevented 3rd party developers from playing in Apple’s sandbox and led to them working with Microsoft. In addition, Steve Jobs annoyed by the noise designed the Apple III without a cooling fan causing the computer to frequently overheat. Consumer’s plagued by overheating computers began to look for other options. In the end, Apple’s disciplined control over their ecosystem, from which they had built their empire, had allowed them to become arrogant and caused their downfall, ultimately bringing the company to the verge of bankruptcy and relegating remaining users to a cult like status.
Fast forward 20 years and Apple regains the spotlight with the launch of the iPhone at MACWORLD on January 7, 2007. Again Apple’s product revolutionized the market and reflected the same principles that had led them to success years earlier. Phone revitalized the company and was followed up with the launch of new iPhone, laptop and PC models.
Signs of Apple’s downfall:
One would think that Apple had learned their lesson. However in the last year, Apple has un-apologetically alienated both its developer and user base. In early 2010, Apple thumbed its nose at developers, accessory manufacturers and the Apple ecosystem by not attending MACWORLD. This is like your friends throwing you a party and you refusing to go. Apple posted on their website:
“Apple is reaching more people in more ways than ever before, so like many companies, trade shows have become a very minor part of how Apple reaches its customers. The increasing popularity of Apple’s Retail Stores, which more than 3.5 million people visit every week, and the Apple.com website enable Apple to directly reach more than a hundred million customers around the world in innovative new ways.”
Needless to say attendance of MACWORLD dropped and developers were left with one less forum to showcase their wares. Consumers were also not immune to Apple’s cavalier attitude last summer. Reminiscent of the Apple III, Job’s team had chose aesthetics over function when building the iPhone 4 and implemented a poor antenna design. When users confronted Jobs on the issue of signal loss when talking on the phone, he glibly responded, “Just hold don’t it that way.” In addition, the negative press of the iPhone 4 highlighted the fact that Apple’s other hit product the iPad, launched a few months earlier, was running the now antiquated OS 3 operating system.
The lack of consideration for their ecosystem, the sub-par design of the iPhone 4 and the rushed launch of the iPad are all hallmarks that Apple may be in the decline. Moreover the migration of technologist like Michal Arrington to Android does not bode well for Apple. Even Steve Wozniak, co-founder of Apple, said in January that the Nexus One was his favorite gadget and was quoted as saying, “"I have two iPhones, sometimes I wear a Droid on my belt, and also a Nexus One. At any given point, I might have BlackBerrys. My main phone is still an iPhone." It is possible that after “Antenna Gate” they will correct their course… but in my opinion think in the future 2010 will be identified as the year that Apple jumped the shark … again.
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ReplyDeleteKevin,
ReplyDeleteThat is an interesting perspective. However, I believe there is a striking difference in Apple's situation between now and 20 years ago. In 1980's, while Apple was a trend setter, it never reached the critical mass and never was the market leader. Fast forward to 2010, Apple's products are market leaders. Just in time when competition figured out the iPod phenomenon, they brought iPhone out and before companies like Microsoft even catch up with it, they already began a new trend, the iPad.
From this trend, we can see that Apple figured out the technology lifecycle pretty well and is churning out new products at right times.
One may say, well, I think iPad is Apple's final bullet... but I would argue, Apple has at least one more weapon which it is keeping ever-so-secret and it is, Cloud! :-)